Simulating Greed Results – Part 1

So the first round of simulations have been finished and the results have been very interesting. On the one hand, the results are pretty much what you’d expect; greed by one entity affects the entities closest to the greedy one. On the other hand, because this simulation makes it possible to monitor total throughput, it allows us to quantify and measure the impact of greed on the complete system. In other words, this simulation can be thought of as a way to study the impact of greed on the GDP of the system.

In the first round of testing, every farmer tries to turn on the water no more than 3 times a second. The nap() method in BasicBirds get a random value between 10ms and the nap length value for each bird after each time the bird has eaten. This means that “lucky” birds will attempt to turn on the water more frequently because the Java random number generator produced lower nap numbers. Unlucky birds will attempt to turn on the water less frequently, again because the Java random function generated higher nap numbers.

Luckiness also manifests itself in another way. Because each farmer (bird) must successfully get two shared resources, a farmer must be lucky enough to try to turn on the water when neighboring farmers aren’t already using the water. Sometimes trying more frequently just means failing more frequently. In general, however, trying more frequently results in water being turned on more frequently.

So in the first round of testing with all the farmers set up the same way, all of the farmers had pretty similar results. Some failed more than others, some succeeded more than others, but it was always different farmers in each run who succeeded or who failed. The consistent variability of the results provides assurance that ConcX isn’t favoring one farmer over another and biasing the outcomes. Click on the charts below to see the full charts.

TotalFails300all

Total Failed Attempts and Successful Attempts

TotalDeliv300all

Total Amount of Water Delivered by Run

TotalDiff300all

Difference Between Farmers Receiving Most and Receiving Least

 

 

 

 

 

 

AmtDeliv300AllRun1

Run 1 – Ajia1 Received Most Water

AmtDeliv300AllRun2

Run 2 – Dave1 Received Most Water

AmtDeliv300AllRun3

Run 3 – Irma1 Received Most Water

 

 

 

 

 

 

The actual numbers reported in these runs are unimportant. With this first round (3 runs) what’s important is that most of the farmers are receiving similar amounts of water and the differences attributable to luck or chance. This round establishes the baseline that will be used for comparison to later rounds of testing.

In the next round of testing, one of the farmers is changed to try to turn on 3 times more frequently than the other farmers. Which farmer is selected is completely arbitrary; any of the 10 farmers could have been selected and similar results would have been achieved. In these results, Bill1 was selected to be greedy and try more frequently to get water.

The following results show that the number of failed attempts has gone up slightly even though the total number of successful attempts is almost unchanged. The total water delivered is also almost unchanged; it goes up slightly. The biggest change is seen in the Difference chart (Farmers: Max Deliv vs Min Deliv). The Max amount that any one farmer received (Bill1) has gone up while the least amount that any one farmer received (Ajia1 or Cate1) has gone done. Again, be sure to click on the thumbnails below to see the details.

TotalFails100For1

Successes & Failures – 1 Slightly Greedy Farmer

TotalDeliv100For1

Total Water Delivered – 1 Slightly Greedy Farmer

TotalDiff100For1

Differences – 1 Slightly Greedy Farmer

 

 

 

 

 

AmtDeliv100Run1

Bill1 is Greedy Farmer – Ajia1 and Cate1 Suffer – Run 1

AmtDeliv100Run2

Bill1 is Greedy Farmer – Ajia1 and Cate1 Suffer – Run 2

AmtDeliv100Run3

Bill1 is Greedy Farmer – Ajia1 and Cate1 Suffer – Run 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the next round of testing (3 runs), the greedy farmer becomes even greedier and tries to turn on the water 10 times more frequently than the neighboring farmers. Again, the farmer that was selected was completely arbitrary.

TotalFails30For1

Total Failures & Successes – 1 Greedy Farmer

TotalDeliv30For1

Total Amount Delivered – 1 Greedy Farmer

TotalDiff30For1

Differences Max & Min – 1 Greedy Farmer

 

 

 

AmtDeliv30Run1

Run 1 – Edna1 is Greedy Farmer – Dave1 and Fred1 Suffer

AmtDeliv30Run2

Run 2 – Edna1 is Greedy Farmer – Dave1 and Fred1 Suffer

AmtDeliv30Run3

Run 3 – Edna1 is the Greedy Farmer – Dave1 and Fred1 Suffer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The results of this round of testing are similar to the previous run; the total number of failed attempts have gone up while the total number of successful attempts is about the same. The total amount of water delivered is moving slightly higher. However, the difference between the maximum amount delivered to a farmer (Edna1) has gone significantly from before while the amount of water delivered to the least fortunate farmers (her neighbors Dave1 and Fred1) has dropped significantly.

One lesson that could be taken from these three rounds of testing is that the total amount of water delivered to the whole system doesn’t go up significantly by allowing one farmer to be more greedy. In this example, the gains of one greedy farmer is greater than the losses of the neighboring farmers. The biggest difference from one test to another has been in the “inequality” in the distribution of water; the additional water that the greedy farmer gained has come at the expense of the neighbors.

It is tempting to draw conclusions from these results, that in societies where there are limitations to resources (every society on earth) that the greediness of an individual is frowned upon because it doesn’t significantly increase the overall amount of product while increasing the hardship of others.

But is this always the case? What happens if death is introduced into the system? Followers of Avian Computing know that birds dying from lack of food has been part of the system design from the beginning. In the next rounds of testing, farmers who receive insufficient water are allowed to give up and move away because their crops died because of lack of water. While this seems cruel, it is in keeping with standard economic theory, where producers with a “competitive advantage” succeed while less efficient producers are allowed (or encouraged) to give up making their current product and begin making a new product.

Stay tuned for the next results.

This entry was posted in Economics on by .

About AvianWriter

Microcomputing and I grew up around the same time (a long time ago). I've always been fascinated by parallel programming but always found it more difficult than it needed to be. After much consideration, the Avian Computing project was born. Oh yeah, and I like long walks on the beach.

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